Is it likely that after the third phase, the prediction of the majority decision in the 18th Lok Sabha will be accurate?
Gopendra Nath Bhatt
Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal did not get relief from the Supreme Court, news of the state government coming to a minority due to three independent MLAs withdrawing their support from the BJP-led Saini government in Haryana, and scorching heatwaves prevailing in many parts of the country, amidst Lok Sabha elections for 93 seats in 12 states and union territories on Tuesday, as per information received so far, more than 65.91 percent of the voting has taken place, which is less than the 68.40 percent voting that took place on 116 seats in 2019. In this phase, the fate of 1351 candidates, including 120 female candidates, has been sealed in EVM machines. These candidates include several stalwart leaders such as Union Minister Amit Shah, Jyotiraditya Scindia, Purushottam Rupala, former Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Digvijay Singh, Dimple Yadav, wife of former Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh Akhilesh Yadav, among others. Key politicians who voted on Tuesday include Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge, NCP leader Ajit Pawar, NCP-SP leader Sharad Pawar and Supriya Sule, and Samajwadi Party leaders Akhilesh and Dimple Yadav, among others.
Afte
r the voting in the third phase, the voting process has been completed on a total of 285 Lok Sabha seats in 20 states of the country. That means more than half of the Lok Sabha seats in the country have completed the election process. Political analysts believe that the fate of the 2024 elections will largely depend on which party or alliance dominates in the first three phases of the Lok Sabha elections. In a way, it is believed that the responsibility for deciding the majority in the 18th Lok Sabha lies with the voters of these 20 states. That is why political analyses are being conducted on television channels even before the voting in all seven phases of the Lok Sabha elections. According to media reports, in the political confrontation between the ruling NDA and the Congress-led India Alliance, this time too, the competition is mainly seen between the BJP and the Congress. Although in the previous Lok Sabha elections, the BJP's political graph has risen on these seats while the Congress's graph has gradually declined.
In this year's elections, while 82 BJP candidates were in the electoral fray in the third phase, 68 candidates from the Congress contested in the field. Besides, there were 79 BSP and 9 SP candidates in the election arena. Apart from these, 650 independent candidates and candidates from 440 other parties are also testing their fate in the election arena. The fate of candidates on 190 seats of the Lok Sabha has already been sealed in EVMs in the first two phases of the Lok Sabha elections. In the third phase, elections were held in 93 seats on Tuesday, which includes 4 seats of Assam, 5 seats of Bihar, 7 seats of Chhattisgarh, 9 seats of Madhya Pradesh, 11 seats of Maharashtra, 1 seat each of Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu, 2 seats of Goa, 14 seats of Karnataka, 1 seat of Jammu and Kashmir, 4 seats of West Bengal, 25 seats of Gujarat, and 10 seats of Uttar Pradesh. There were elections in 94 seats in the third phase of the Lok Sabha elections, but the election was canceled on the Betul seat in the second phase due to the death of the BSP candidate, and the election was held in the third phase on that seat. Similarly, in the third phase, there was also to be an election on the Surat Lok Sabha seat in Gujarat, but as there was only one candidate left in the election field, BJP candidate Mukesh Dalal was declared uncontested winner beforehand. Elections were held on 25 seats in Gujarat in the third phase. BJP had been successful in winning all 26 seats of Gujarat in 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Similarly, in this phase, where elections were held on 9 seats of Madhya Pradesh, BJP had swept all the seats in the previous elections. Besides, BJP had won 6 out of 7 seats in Chhattisgarh and captured all 14 seats of Karnataka. Additionally, BJP had won 8 out of 10 seats in Uttar Pradesh. BJP had also won 5 seats in Bihar. However, this time, there is tough competition ahead of the BJP on all 11 seats of Maharashtra. Also, there is a tough competition on the 4 seats of Assam in this phase, where the All India United Democratic Front's Badruddin Ajmal holds one seat and the rest three seats are with the NDA.
In the third phase of the Lok Sabha elections, it is a litmus test for the deceased SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav's family, with three members contesting, including Akhilesh Yadav's wife Dimple Yadav from Mainpuri seat, Ramgopal Yadav's son Akshay Yadav from Firozabad seat, and Shivpal Yadav's son Aditya Yadav from Badaun seat. Thus, the political test from Akhilesh to Shivpal and Ramgopal is in this phase only. Of the 10 seats in Uttar Pradesh where elections were held in the third phase, SP is contesting on 9 seats. SP had succeeded in winning Sambhal and Mainpuri seats in 2019, which is why it is a tough challenge for it to maintain its prestige on these seats this time.
For Congress too, the elections in the third phase are a challenge to maintain its political existence. Last time, Congress was wiped out from Gujarat to Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Bihar. On one hand, Congress has not been able to win a single seat in Gujarat in the last two elections, while in other states from Madhya Pradesh to Maharashtra, its seats have been decreasing. In the last 10 years, Congress has reduced from 27 seats in the Lok Sabha to 4 seats in these states. Although Congress has not been able to reach the halfway mark in the last two Lok Sabha elections due to the Modi wave, it has high hopes in this year's elections. Congress hopes to increase its seats from Karnataka to Maharashtra and Gujarat. Congress is expected to benefit from contesting elections with allies Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar in Maharashtra this time. Along with this, Congress is seeing an advantage in Gujarat from the resentment of the Kshatriya community due to the statement
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