“SEA’s Predictive Analysis on All India  Estimates 115.2 Lakh Tonnes of Rapeseed-Mustard Production for Rabi 2024-25"

Udaipur (Dr. Tuktak Bhanawat) : The Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), has conducted a comprehensive survey on Rapeseed-Mustard acreage and production estimates for the Rabi 2024-25 season. Based on SEA’s field survey and SatSure’s satellite-driven predictive analysis, the total mustard acreage is projected at 92.15 lakh hectares, with an estimated production of 115.2 lakh tonnes. These findings suggest a marginal increase in acreage compared to the Government’s estimate of 89.30 lakh hectares but indicate a 2.5% decline in area from last year’s 91.8 lakh ha.

Sanjeev Asthana, President, SEA,  in his opening remark pointed out that, over the years, India has emerged as the world’s largest edible oil importer leading to a severe stress on its treasury as well as on farmers’ incomes. As a responsible and apex industry body, the SEA has initiated host of initiatives to raise the domestic availability of oilseeds. One of these initiatives, named “Model Mustard Farm Project” is being implemented since 2020-21 with a vision to increase India’s Rapeseed-Mustard production to 200 Lakh tonnes by 2029-30.

“The current MSP for Mustard is Rs. 5950 per quintal. Mustard price already touched MSP and likely to go down with the arrival pressure. Government must gear up the NAFED and other agencies to buy at the MSP to protect the famers”, said Dr B V Mehta, Executive Director.

“As a result of these concerted efforts coupled with favorable weather and price of mustard seed, India has witnessed a remarkable increase in mustard production year after year from around 86 lakh tons in 2020-21,and all-time high of 120.9 lakh tons in 2023-24 mustard production recorded.  The acreage for 2024-25 of Rapeseed/ Mustard is around 92.15 lakh hectares and estimated production will be around 115.2 lakh tonnes” said Vijay Data, Chairman, SEA Rape-Mustard Promotion Council.

SEA has roped in Satsure Analutics India Private Ltd. for the survey through two rounds of extensive crop surveys, remote sensing analysis for highest level of accuracy in crop area estimation.  While elaborating the project outcome Mr Kumarjit Maumdar of Satsure, briefed  that the survey also included constant interactions with farmers from sowing through harvesting to ensuring the impact of all agronomic practices, selection of inputs, and weather is considering to arrive at the final estimate.  Total eight states such Assam, Gujarat, Haryana, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal were surveyed.

Based on the primary survey of eight major states and secondary survey of rest of the states, India’s rapeseed-mustard acreage for 2024-25 is estimated at 92.15 lakh hectares

( Government estimate is 89.30 lakh Ha.)

Mr Kumarjit Maumdar, Satsure Analutics India Private Ltd, briefed on the Key Findings and State-Wise Acreage Insights :

• Rajasthan, the largest mustard-producing state, is estimated to cover 34.74 lakh hectares, with a projected output of 52.45 lakh tonnes. 

• Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh are expected to cultivate 14.86 lakh hectares and 14.23 lakh hectares, respectively, contributing significantly to national production.
• Haryana is projected at 7.14 lakh hectares, with an estimated production of 12.58 lakh tonnes.
• Other key mustard-growing states, including West Bengal, Jharkhand, Assam, and Gujarat, show stable acreage with marginal increases.

State-wise acreage, yield and production as estimated by the survey:

Field Observations and Farmer Sentiments

1. Crop Growth Trends – NDVI values and crop growth observations indicate that the mustard crop has remained in line or performed better than expected in major mustard-growing regions, including Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Rajasthan, and West Bengal.
2. Ground Truthing Insights – Field assessments suggest positive crop growth stages, particularly in inflorescence emergence and flowering, which are crucial phases for mustard yield formation.
3. Farmer Sentiments – Despite the increase in Minimum Support Price (MSP) announced by the Government of India, farmers remain cautious about mustard cultivation due to rising production costs.

Dr Mehta clarified that, SEA emphasizes that these estimates and observations are subject to revision based on evolving agronomic conditions, real-time remote sensing assessments, and further analytical insights. Updated acreage and harvest reports will be provided as the season progresses. The SEA will conduct the third and final field survey in Apr-May to revalidate its estimates of yield and production.